It’s looking like a battle of the heavyweights at the 2025 Grammy Awards, as Recording Academy darlings Taylor Swift, Beyoncé, and Billie Eilish all released major albums and singles during the eligibility period (September 16, 2023, to August 30, 2024). Commercial titans Post Malone, Sabrina Carpenter, Chappell Roan, and Eminem are also likely locks for nominations. Keeping in mind the industry favorites and some of Pitchfork’s own favorite music since late last year, here is a breakdown of potential Grammy nominees, a mix of longshots and safe bets to reflect the academy’s tendency to mix a surprise or two into the field of chart-toppers. Stay tuned for the final nominations on Friday, November 8.
Album of the Year
- Beyoncé - Cowboy Carter
- Billie Eilish - Hit Me Hard and Soft
- Brittany Howard - What Now
- Chappell Roan - The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess
- Charli XCX - Brat
- Sufjan Stevens - Javelin
- Taylor Swift - The Tortured Poets Department
- Vampire Weekend - Only God Was Above Us
Let’s start with the easy ones. Billie Eilish’s first two albums were nominated for Album of the Year (and her debut won the award!), so she’ll get nominated. Taylor Swift is also coming off an Album of the Year victory for Midnights. And Beyoncé, despite never having won in the major album category, is perennially a nominee and, generally, the winningest artist in Grammys history.
After that, the field opens up a little, but it still feels safe to assume that breakout star Chappell Roan will make another splash with an Album of the Year nod. And, if the Democratic candidate for president “IS brat,” then maybe the Grammys ARE brat, too.
With the major pop figures out of the way, there could be room for alternative and indie stars to get nominations. Vampire Weekend vaulted from the alternative to general category, in 2020, with Father of the Bride, and a repeat for Only God Was Above Us is deserved. Brittany Howard’s What Now could be too sonically diverse to fit a single genre category, making it a good candidate for Album of the Year, a category where she and Alabama Shakes were nominated at the 2016 Grammys.
Lastly, Sufjan Stevens may be the darkest of the dark horses, with his lone Grammy nomination coming years ago for the Call Me by Your Name standard “Mystery of Love.” But the heart-wrenching Javelin could benefit from the mainstream appreciation and acclaim of the Illinoise musical.
–Matthew Strauss
Record of the Year
- Beyoncé - Texas Hold ’Em
- Chappell Roan - Good Luck, Babe!
- Kendrick Lamar - Not Like Us
- Post Malone Featuring Morgan Wallen - I Had Some Help
- Sabrina Carpenter - Espresso
- Taylor Swift Featuring Post Malone - Fortnight
- Tems - Me & U
- Tinashe - Nasty
As always, there are some very obvious contenders for Record of the Year at the 2025 Grammys; the songs that chase you from the gym, to CVS, to your late-night Uber (Sabrina Carpenter’s “Espresso,” Chappell Roan’s “Good Luck, Babe!”). The unexpected crossover smash hit (Post Malone and Morgan Wallen’s “I Had Some Help”). And, of course, songs by Beyoncé and Taylor Swift, which seem to float straight from pop’s Mount Olympus and onto the Grammy ballot, inked in gold. Kendrick Lamar—a decorated Grammy winner and distinguished man of letters—will probably make the list for his seismic, scathing Drake diss track “Not Like Us.” (If he wins it, there’s no telling when that beef will be squashed.) Miley Cyrus’ mostly palatable dance track “Flowers” nabbed Record of the Year in February, proving that Grammy voters often gobble up the softest and safest pop. If they’re looking for something that’s melodic with real emotional depth and dynamic production, “Me & U,” by Afropop star Tems, could break the category’s tepid run from Silk Sonic to Lizzo to Cyrus. Or, we can admit that fun and slutty pop songs still reign supreme, and give Tinashe her crown for “Nasty.”
–Madison Bloom
Song of the Year
- Beyoncé - Texas Hold ’Em
- Chappell Roan - Good Luck, Babe!
- Charli XCX & Lorde - Girl, So Confusing Featuring Lorde
- Jessica Pratt - Life Is
- Kendrick Lamar - Not Like Us
- Post Malone Featuring Morgan Wallen - I Had Some Help
- Sabrina Carpenter - Espresso
- Taylor Swift Featuring Post Malone - Fortnight
An annual reminder, the distinction between Record of the Year and Song of the Year is small but important. The former category is about a track’s entire recording, and the latter recognizes the songwriting. Nevertheless, there is typically a great deal of overlap between the categories. For our purposes, the winks and innuendos of Sabrina Carpenter’s “Espresso” are sure to appeal to the songwriters of the Recording Academy. And “Girl, So Confusing Featuring Lorde” is both irresistible and self-referential. If the Grammys really wanted to reward expert songwriting, though, they’d look to Jessica Pratt’s “Life Is.”
–Matthew Strauss
Best New Artist
- Cash Cobain
- Chappell Roan
- Mannequin Pussy
- Mk.gee
- Sabrina Carpenter
- Shaboozey
- Teddy Swims
- Tommy Richman
Given the ubiquity of Sabrina Carpenter’s “Espresso” and the expanding reign of reluctant pop star Chappell Roan, their Best New Artist nominations are nearly mandatory. Roan earned the title at this year’s MTV Video Music Awards, and her jet-propelled ascent from Midwest princess to chart-topping diva make her more than eligible for a nod from the Recording Academy. Carpenter has been releasing music for over a decade, but the Grammy guidelines for Best New Artist require only that nominees haven’t experienced a “breakthrough or prominence” before the eligibility period. She certainly had not.
But this category always has its share of shiny and new populist faves; polished, melodic crooners like Shaboozey, Tommy Richman, and Teddy Swims could well make the Best New Artist class of 2025, especially the latter two, who rose to fame via TikTok and YouTube, respectively. Singer-songwriter and guitarist Mk.gee, who has garnered praise from Eric Clapton and John Mayer, and is working with Justin Bieber, seems primed for the nomination, too. New York rapper Cash Cobain, whose sexy drill album Play Cash Cobain solidified his prominence as an emcee and producer, should also be considered in a sea of more straightforward pop potentials. If the Grammys really wanted to toss in an outlier, they’d nominate Philadelphia punks Mannequin Pussy, who are, in fact, vying for nomination. It’s rare for an underground act to secure the Best New Artist bag, but the nomination alone would be a game-changing career booster.
–Madison Bloom
Best Rap Album
- Eminem - The Death of Slim Shady (Coup de Grâce)
- Future & Metro Boomin - We Don’t Trust You
- Ken Carson - A Great Chaos
- Rapsody - Please Don’t Cry
- Schoolboy Q - Blue Lips
Since Tyler, the Creator’s victory, for Igor, in 2020, the Grammys have gone conservative when it comes to hip-hop. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, as Tyler’s next Grammy winner, Call Me If You Get Lost and Kendrick Lamar’s Mr. Morale & the Big Steppers, in particular, are great examples of what happens when masterful artists marry the core tenets of lyrical rap with innovative music. Future and Metro Boomin’s We Don’t Trust You, Rapsody’s Please Don’t Cry, and Schoolboy’s Blue Lips should all be appealing to voters who want bars that aren’t just stuck on ’90s retread beats. And if they want to handout a lifetime achievement award, Eminem would be more than happy to accept it. That leaves Ken Carson’s as a great representative for underground and internet rap that continues to inspire and invigorate a generation of fans and artists whose holy grail is Whole Lotta Red.
–Matthew Strauss
Best Rock Album
- Jack White - No Name
- Mdou Moctar - Funeral for Justice
- Pearl Jam - Dark Matter
- The Rolling Stones - Hackney Diamonds
- St. Vincent - All Born Screaming
Once rock bands get their foot in the door of the Grammys, they’re legally allowed to waltz right into the room with each ensuing album, even if minimal radio airplay or middling reviews suggest the music is forgettable. That means Pearl Jam, with their return-to-form-ish comeback Dark Matter, and the Rolling Stones and their hackneyed Hackney Diamonds are highly likely nominees. So is Jack White, so long as he wants to be in the rock category with his on-brand blues revival No Name. Then comes St. Vincent, a representative of the Recording Academy’s “new” generation with three Grammys in her pocket, who could also ditch alternative and try for rock nominations with All Born Screaming.
Just like that, four of the five possible nomination spots are already claimed. There’s an overwhelming number of artists whose standout albums from the past year deserve to shimmer in that blank space, but it’s Mdou Moctar with the transformative and absorbing Funeral for Justice who not only shred hard enough to earn that capital-r Rock spot, but who also stand a good chance of winning over enough voters to dethrone an industry perennial favorite.
–Nina Corcoran
Best Alternative Music Album
- Adrianne Lenker - Bright Future
- L’Rain - I Killed Your Dog
- The Smile - Wall of Eyes
- Vampire Weekend - Only God Was Above Us
- Waxahatchee - Tigers Blood
Sure, there’s technically a definition justifying what is and isn’t “alternative” enough to qualify for Best Alternative Music Album at the Grammys, but it reads more like a vibe check–turned–diss track against the other categories: “a genre of music that embraces attributes of progression and innovation… [that’s] typically more original, eclectic, or musically challenging.” Best to think of it as the lunch table at art school where all the popular kids sit. Too quiet for Best Rock Album? Of course you’re welcome here, Vampire Weekend’s Only God Was Above Us and the Smile’s Wall of Eyes. Too artsy for Best Americana or Best Folk Album? These seats are exclusively reserved for Waxahatchee’s Tigers Blood and Adrianne Lenker’s Bright Future. But the coolest pick in the category goes to the true unpinnable act, the one who’s outside of genres altogether yet could hold its own in three different categories anyway: L’Rain’s I Killed Your Dog. If Best Alternative Music Album really is about the records that challenge definition and musically shapeshift on each listen, then let Taja Cheek’s third full-length flex already.
–Nina Corcoran
Best Dance/Electronic Music Album
- Burial - Dreamfear/Boy Sent From Above
- Four Tet - Three
- Marina Herlop - Nekkuja
- ML Buch - Suntub
- Sofia Kourtesis - Madres
When it comes to the Dance/Electronic category, the Grammys ballot tends to read more like the lineup at Ultra Music Festival than a flier for a warehouse party. Maybe that could change! Last year’s nominees included Skrillex, James Blake, and Fred Again.. (who won), but the world of contemporary electronic music is too nuanced and exhilarating to keep dusting off the same Top 40 titans. Why not recognize Nekkuja, the dazzling fourth album by Barcelona composer Marina Herlop, with its glittering fragments of baroque pop, jazz, and digital distortion? Danish musician ML Buch crafts silvery, almost liquid soundscapes on her Suntub LP, tweaking ’80s pop, vaporwave, and ’90s alt into glassy planes of sound. Four Tet also hovers in this chiller realm of electronica on his latest album, Three (plus, he’s friends with Skrillex and Fred Again..). A nod for Peruvian producer Sofia Kourtesis, whose debut record, Madres, drifts on effervescent house beats, would be well-deserved, as would a nomination for Burial’s Dreamfear/Boy Sent From Above, which revs from industrial breakbeat to a synth-smeared climax.
–Madison Bloom
Best Progressive R&B Album
- Childish Gambino - Bando Stone and the New World
- NxWorries - Why Lawd?
- Omar Apollo - God Said No
- Tinashe - Quantum Baby
- Yaya Bey - Ten Fold
In 2021, the Recording Academy renamed the Best Urban Contemporary Album category to Best Progressive R&B Album. That year, the rebranded accolade’s first recipient, Thundercat, bluntly said: “Do I feel like I make progressive R&B?… I guess if that’s what you would call it, I guess that’s what you would call it.” The title remains slightly nebulous, but, based on prior winners like Lucky Daye, Steve Lacy, and SZA, it seems plausible that the funk and soul-inflected pop of Yaya Bey’s Ten Fold or Tinashe’s hushed sensuality on Quantum Baby could get them nods this year. We all know the Grammys love Anderson .Paak in collab mode, so it’s likely Why Lawd?, his NxWorries second original LP with Knxwledge, will get some attention. The sudden—and final—return of Childish Gambino on Bando Stone and the New World will probably net Donald Glover a nomination in the Progressive R&B slot despite its fragmented, often messy construction. But, if the Grammy noms were bestowed simply by who made Gen Z scream the loudest, dreamboat and hot sauce mogul Omar Apollo would surely get his flowers for God Said No.
–Madison Bloom
Best Country Album
- Beyoncé - Cowboy Carter
- Chris Stapleton - Higher
- Kacey Musgraves - Deeper Well
- Post Malone - F-1 Trillion
- Shaboozey - Where I’ve Been, Isn’t Where I’m Going
The country categories should be fascinating this year as it pits the old guard against the vanguard. Beyoncé is poised to dominate another genre (despite not getting any nominations at the Country Music Association Awards), and fellow hybrid acts Post Malone and Shaboozey could come along for the ride. (It doesn’t hurt that they both featured on Cowboy Carter before dropping their own blockbusters.) Chris Stapleton and Kacey Musgraves represent the familiar to Grammys voters, and so would Zach Bryan were he to have submitted his work for consideration.
–Matthew Strauss
Best Country Duo/Group Performance
- Beyoncé, Tanner Adell, Brittney Spencer, Tiera Kennedy & Reyna Roberts - Blackbiird
- Gillian Welch & David Rawlings - Empty Trainload of Sky
- Post Malone Featuring Luke Combs - Guy for That
- Post Malone Featuring Morgan Wallen - I Had Some Help
- Waxahatchee Featuring MJ Lenderman - Right Back to It
One more country category of note is Best Country Duo/Group Performance because there’s a world in which all five nominations could come from Post Malone’s duets album F-1 Trillion. We’ll cap it at the Morgan Wallen collaboration “I Had Some Help” and Luke Combs–featuring “Guy for That”—instead of also tacking on “Pour Me Drink” (featuring Blake Shelton), “Wrong Ones” (featuring Tim McGraw), and “Losers” (featuring Jelly Roll).
Realistically, Beyoncé could appear in this country category, too, with her somber group cover of “Blackbird.” And, if the Grammys are looking outside the box, Waxahatchee and MJ Lenderman’s “Right Back to It” is one of the year’s best songs, and it just happens to be country; and Gillian Welch and David Rawlings returned to original music with Woodland, and “Empty Trainload of Sky” is a worthy representative for the album.
–Matthew Strauss
